The Houthi Red Sea Drone and Missile Strike: Rhetoric, Reality, and Regional Escalation
October 25, 2023
Anthony Chimente & Ali Mahmood
USS Carney (DDG-64) transits the Suez Canal, Oct. 18, 2023. US Navy Photo
On October 7th, Hamas militants launched one of the most unprecedented incursions in Palestinian history, with a barrage of nearly 3,000 rockets and close to 2,5000 militants into Israel from the Gaza Strip. While still a single-front battle, the ground situation is fluid, and the fear of escalating into a regional war is very real. The Iranian-backed Axis of Resistance is one fundamental element to consider. The Israeli-Palestinian crisis has a strong potential to draw in regional, non-state actors, including the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. To be sure, On October 19th, the Pentagon confirmed the USS Carney, an Arleigh Burke guided missile destroyer, successfully intercepted three cruise missiles and a handful of drones launched by the Houthis while operating in the Red Sea.
Indeed,
the Iranian-backed Houthis have taken a more strident stance towards the recent
Israeli-Palestinian hostilities. The Houthis have convened multiple rallies
chanting their hallmark slogan of “Death to America, Death to Israel, Curse
Upon the Jews.” Houthi founder Hussein Al-Houthi coined
the chant as a battle cry and flag to rally around for Houthi supporters. Additionally,
the Houthis initiated a fundraising campaign for the Hamas militants, forcing
inhabitants within Houthi-controlled areas to pay a levy. Moreover, the Houthi
defense minister of information stated that Sana is willing to send thousands
of fighters and the weaponry required to attack Israel.
The
Houthis have clearly stated
the intention to join a Hamas counteroffensive if the Israeli Defense Forces
(IDF) launch an incursion into the Gaza Strip and continue the air campaign.
Abdulmalik Al-Houthi, head of the Iranian-backed militia, threatened on October 10 to launch missiles and drones against Israel. '’If the
Americans directly intervened militarily, we would be ready to participate,
with missile and drone strikes and other military options,' added the group
leader. The Houthi prime minister confirmed following a meeting on October 21st with Palestinian militia
officials that Israeli ships operating in the Red Sea will be targeted if
Israel launches an incursion into the Gaza Strip.
Rhetoric
vs Reality
The Houthi threat to launch missiles or drone strikes at Israel or other
unfriendly targets is not a newfound development, as the group has issued
similar rhetoric in the past. For example, in 2020, a Houthi official said that missiles targeting Saudi Arabian oil facilities could also be used
against Israel. Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, Houthi
spokesman and politburo member, declared on X that now is the
“opportune moment for the axis of resistance represented by Yemen, Syria,
Lebanon, Iran, and Iraq, to participate in the decisive battle against the
occupying Zionist entity in support of our Palestinian brothers.”
With missiles capable of hitting targets up to
2,500 km away, the Houthi salvo against Israel is a question of will, not
capability; if the group chooses to do so, it can. Last year, Houthi-affiliated
Brigadier General Abdallah al-Jaifri implied this capability in a statement that “the very same missiles
and drones that have reached the UAE today will reach Tel Aviv and the Eilat
Port. There are also other missiles and drones with a longer range — a range of
2,500 km — and can go beyond the Zionist entity.” On the Telegraph, the Houthis
posted Quds 3 and Quds 4 missiles in a parade with messages in Hebrew stating, “your days are
numbered” and “your army will be destroyed.” While the Pentagon remained unsure whether
the volley of three missiles and 15 drones fired by the Iranian proxy intentionally
targeted Israel, the Pentagon confirmed a “heading north along
the Red Sea potentially towards targets in Israel.” On October 22nd,
Houthi officials affirmed the salvo intended to
strike Israel and confirmed the launch to signify “a form of solidarity with
the people of Gaza.”
Beyond this, there is little doubt the Islamic
Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) ordered the attack in a bid by Tehran to
signal to the region that the IRGC would try and prevent the IDF from operating
within Gaza. Earlier this month, a high-ranking official in the Southern
Transitional Council security services relayed to the American Center for Yemeni
Studies that Iranian, Lebanese Hezbollah and Iraqi experts in missiles and
drones visited Houthi outposts at the border strip between South Yemen and the Houthi-held
territory in North Yemen. "We have information to confirm that two Iranian
experts visited multiple areas under the Houthi militia control between the provinces
of Lahj and Taiz," added the official.
He went on to convey Iranian experts recently
visited areas close to the western coast of Yemen including the areas of Jabal
Jalis in Al Qabbaytah, Northwest of Karish northern Lahj province, and also
visited sites located in Jabal Al Jah and Jabal Arriyah, between Arrahidah,
Hifan Jabal Al Quba’ in Hifan, Mafraq Mawiyah all located in Taiz province
southeast Yemen. Moreover, the attacks occurred a few days following a
statement by Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Amirabdollahian, who indicated that “preemptive
action” from the Axis of Resistance was imminent and Israel would face multiple
fronts if a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip manifested and American forces
became involved.
Drivers
and Implications
There
are many reasons behind the Houthis decision to launch a missile and drone
salvo at Israel, although the attack was largely symbolic in nature. One is
based on Iranian direction and the desire for regional prestige amongst the
other members of the Axis of Resistance by demonstrating a willingness to
engage in regional conflicts. Thus, the Houthis are solidifying themselves as
partners in the Axis of Resistance. There is also an apparent attempt at
messaging or signaling to Israel and the US that the Houthis can strike both
countries' interests in the region. The Houthis are lashing
out at the proper setting to embolden their anti-American and Israeli
sentiment, in contrast to a somewhat constrained approach to criticizing Israel
and America in the past.
The campaign for Palestinian statehood has long
been a cause célèbre in the Muslim world and plays into public opinion. Gulf
Arabs feel that their governments should stand in solidarity with the
Palestinian people and halt all forms of cooperation with Israel. While the Houthis possess the necessary manpower and
weaponry to assist Hamas if the IDF launches a full-scale invasion of the Gaza
Strip, rhetoric is debatable compared to kinetic military action. Thus, the
Houthis are attempting to garner more influence and stature by attempting to
attack Israel and aligning with the Palestinian cause. Houthi leadership
affirmed the desire to defend Palestine, and a top official claimed
to be in close cooperation and coordination “with our brothers [Hamas] in the Axis of Resistance.” The
strike, in coordination with those emanating from other Axis of Resistance
partners, demonstrates an Iranian capability to engage in regional conflict
while diffusing any blame to proxy elements.
The attack coincides with ongoing peace
negotiations between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia. It remains unclear as to
what the implications will be, but the Houthis have sent a strong message and
could use the attack as leverage in talks with Saudi Arabia. Another point of
contention is how militarily effective Houthi drone and missile salvos would be
against Israeli or American targets. The Israeli Iron missile and air defense
system has taken down a large portion of missiles and rockets launched by Hamas
and Hezbollah in the past. To be sure, the IDF spokesman reaffirmed the Israeli capacity
to thwart any Houthi-instigated missile or drone strikes “at a rate that has not
been seen for decades.”
Therefore, Houthi missiles and drones are likely
to be intercepted before successfully targeting American or Israeli interests
in the region, given the sophistication of the Iron Dome system and the capability
of American warships in nearby waters, part of a regional air and missile
defense architecture. As part of this
architecture, American forces, and the International Community are likely to
strengthen security and military ties with the Yemeni government along with the
Joint Forces of Brigadier General Tariq Saleh stationed on Western Yemeni
territory adjacent to the Red Sea. It remains to be seen if the Houthis will
launch further salvos against American and Israeli targets at sea and on land
if the IDF invades the Gaza Strip. There is also the question of whether or not
the attack was political messaging or a glimpse of the Houthi militia's
sustained role and involvement in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.